Thursday evening, Jan 2, 2020, the US government, using a Predator drone, launched a missile that struck and killed Iranian Major General Sardar Qasem Soleimani at Baghdad’s international airport.
Much will be said in the coming weeks on the wisdom of striking the leader of the Iranian Military. He also headed the Iranian elite Quds force which is arm of the Iranian Guard Corps.
Two key events, a large timeline of history, and opportunity seem to be what triggered the U.S. drone attack. The two events, described below, are the killing of Nawres Hamid in a Hezbollah attack and the protests at the US Embassy.
In 2007 the United National Security Council, banned Soleimani from international travel. In 2015, this travel ban was re-affirmed with Security Council Resolution 2231. Soleimani was in violation of this resolution as he was outside Iran.
Iran has been in the news for years. Tanker wars, Drone shoot downs, Iranian funding of it’s Proxy groups like Hamas, Hezbollah, Syrian National Defense Force, Houthi’s in Yemen, the list is long. All funded by Iran, a country with more international sanctions to dampen their economy, but somehow, they find the money to dole out to proxy groups.
Iran passenger flights during time of stress or war? One would hope their version of the FAA would ground passenger flights while launching ballistic missiles. And now we have two incidents, Jan 7, 2020, and back in 1988, where Iranian passenger flights have been shot down, because of the fog of war. Why would you let a passenger plane take off with such a heightened sense of security?
At some point something has to be done about Iran. Giving them more money, as the Obama administration did, just let’s them up their game to another level.
Susan Rice - "Obama Administration was not presented with an opportunity"
Susan Rice, Obama’s former National Security Advisor, speaking on CNN, stated, “I am doubtful that ultimately it will prove to be the right thing,”.
The Obama administration had a much softer stance in regards to Iran.
Speaking to MSNBC Rachel Maddow, Rice stated “The Obama administration was not presented with an opportunity by our intelligence community or by the U.S. military to strike Qassem Soleimani.”
During the Obama administration Drone attacks on targets were used judiciously and techniques were refined to the point where we are today.
In 2011 the Obama administration sanctioned Soleimani as a terrorist for his role in plotting a bomb attack on the Cafe Milano, an upscale Georgetown restaurant, where the target was a Saudi ambassador. The plot was attributed to the Quds Force, of which Soleiman was the leader. The Quds Force group is part of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard.
Recent History - Iran flexing it's muscles as Trump pulls away from Syria
This was not the first attack on Saudia Arabia in recent weeks. GardaWorld reported that Houthi militants had fired 200 missiles at Saudia Arabia since 2015. This Jun-2, an attack on Abha Airport injured 26 civilians, Jun-15, attacks on Jizan Regional Airport (GIZ) and Abha International Airport (AHB). Two days later, Jun-17, Houthi forces claimed responsibility for an attack on Saudi Arabia’s Abha Airport. On August 17th Yemen Houthis, (Iranian Proxy-where did their weapons come from?), directed a similar attack at the Shaybah oil field in the kingdom’s South East region, under ‘Operation Deterrent Balance 1’. Not much damage was done. The drones used in these attacks have been relatively low tech. If one starts to review all of these drone attacks, there are so many, a long list is needed.
But the Sept 14th attack showed the use of newer sophisticated weapons that Saudia Arabia was not ready for. The drones used in this were able to precisely hit their intended attacks in a simultaneous multi-drone attack. In addition the target was not in south adjacent to Yemen, but in mid Saudia Arabia, a flight if hundreds of miles.
Saudia Arabia is the worlds largest exporter of oil. This operation took 5%(~5 million barrels) of the worlds oil output until repairs are made. The Saudi kingdom is today, nominally producing 9.7M barrels/day.
Trigger #1 - A missile Attack from an Iranian Proxy Group kills an American
Dec 27, 2019 Missiles struck an Iraqi compound housing US and other country forces. Nawres Hamid was killed and other service members were wounded in the attack. Mr. Hamid was a resident of Sacramento California.
Two days later with the US embassy in Iraq assault started, Trump tweeted about the attack that killed Mr. Hamid.
Trigger #2 - An U.S. Embassy Event (history from 40 years back)
191231-Protestors, upset at U.S. Air strikes in northern Iraq started small fires, hurled stones, and protested outside the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad on Dec 31, 2019. Older Americans, such as President Trump, might regard the assault on an Embassy as a direct provocation.
The Pentagon sent additional troops to the area, some of which were flown in via MV-22 Osprey’s directly into the compound, others sent to nearby Kuwait Reuters reported.
The protests were said to be in response to the US Airstrikes that started this were said in themselves to be a response to rockets attacks on the K-1 base in the Kirkuk Governorate in northern Iraq, AMN News reported.
Some Americans may remember back in 1978, when Iran took the U.S. Embassy hostage, with 52 captors, for 444 days, only releasing them on January 20, 1981, when Ronald Reagan was sworn in. Soleimani shows up 2 days after the ‘Embassy’ protests began, and ?
Drone Shootdowns?
Tanker Wars - ongoing spurts of activity
Ukrainian Flight 752 (non closure of public airspace - (history repeats?)
Iran’s military recently shot down a passenger plane of theirs, Ukrainian Flight 752. The plane was operating in a short time window where Iran had launched ballistic missiles against an American/Iraqi base in Iraq. A similar incident occurred 31 years ago. Should the Iranian equivalent of the US FAA, stopped public air traffic for a short time? Was it wise to even let Ukrainian Flight 752 take off?
The USS Vincennes Incident where a Iran Air flight 655 was shot down killing all 290 people on board. This is an historical event that still will get a crowd in Iran riled out. Iran had declared war on the US, Iranian gunboats are attacking the Vincennes, and a passenger plane takes off flying in a path to be directly over the Vincennes. Perhaps remembering the USS Stark incident, the Captain of the Vincennes fires a missile, downing the plane with 290 people on board.
1988-Apr-14 – Iran had planted limpet mines around it’s waters, the USS Samuel B. Roberts stumbled into one. Four days later on the 18th – The US retaliated and attacked Iranian Oil rigs in Iranian waters sinking the Iranian frigate Sahand.
1988-Jul 2- In the evening the merchant ship Corona Maris issues a distress call as it is attacked by 12-15 Boghammars(Iranian Patrol Boats). The USS Elmer Montgomery rescues it and escorts it to safety.
1988-Jul-3 – The US navy detects loud explosions and the USS Vincennes rushes to assist the Dhaulagiri, a German merchant ship. But they are not under attack. IT then went to help the USS Montgomery and crossed into Omani waters. The Omanis ordered it to leave, so they did. Capt McKenna, Surface Warfare Cmdr in the Persian Golf ordered to Capt Rogers of the Vincennes to stay put,and send sa helicopter to investigate the explosions.
The helicopter pilot reported coming under fire by Iranian speedboats further north, so Rogers violated McKenna’s orders and entered Iranian waters.
1988-Jul-3 (1047) – A blip appears on the USS Vincennes radar. The crew responds immediately with an IFF (Ident Friend or Foe) query. They received a Mode 3 Commair response, which identified the plane as a commercial airliner. At 1049-The Vincennes warns aircraft on a military frequency, no response. @1050-Warning repeated, civilian and military channels, no response.
1988-Jul-3(1051) Aircraft warned, will be shot down at 20 nautical miles, no response. @1051-Vincennes holds fire, confusion about descending or climbing. @1053-Final warning, no response
@1054 Two SM-2 missiles launched Iran Air 655 is 8 nautical miles away at 13,500 feet.
During all this time the Vincennes was in a gunboat battle with the Iranian Speedboats. The lights in the Vincennes control room are flickering every time it exchanges fire with an Iranian speedboat.
The following text is from the MIT analysis, (times were changed to account for 30 minute Iranian time offset)
The majority of the crew members on board the USS Vincennes that day had created an erroneous expectancy of what was happening. This was partially caused by fresh memories of the USS Stark, which was severely damaged a year earlier by an Iraqi fighter jet. Many psychologists call this concept scenario fulfillment. Iran Flight 655 took off from the joint civilian/military airport at Bandar Abbasat about 10:47. As it was climbing to its cruising altitude, five crew members in the Combat Information Center (CIC) on the Vincennes independently believed that the incoming aircraft was descending and picking up speed. Anonymous shouts and warnings created a very tense atmosphere in the CIC. Capt Rogers and other officers paid more attention to the shouts, warnings, and emergency signals than to the actual displays and print outs of the Aegis system, which, if carefully analyzed, would have easily shown that the incoming aircraft was a commercial airplane and was in fact simply climbing to its cruising altitude. Probably a very significant factor in all of this was the stress, tension, lack of time, and fog and friction of war. Flight 655 was detected by radar at 10:47 and was shot down 7 minutes later at 10:54, when it came within 10 miles of the Vincennes. 7 minutes is a short time to make such a critical decision, especially with all that was going on at the time in the CIC.
Summary
Some people will blame Trump for everything. Other’s will stand by his decision to remove Soleimani. Time will tell. But Soleimani had grown bolder over time and Iran continued arming its proxies with more sophisticated weapons has been an increasing danger to the region.
He was not allowed, by UN sanctions, to be in Iraq. Why was he there? Was he involved in the assaults on the US Embassy in Iraq?
Was the intel, and then the opportunity, too easy to pass up? What would Obama have done after an Embassy issue?
References
- An MIT Analysis of the USS Vincennes shootdown of Iran Air Flight 655 on July 3rd 1988
- War History Online - The Vincennes incident
- The Unraveling of Sanctions on Qud's Force Qassem Soleimani
- Attack on Saudi Oil Refineries Proves the Devasting Potention of Iranian Cruise Missiles.
- Guardian - Sept 14th Saudia Arabia Oil Attacks
- 1988-Apr-19-US sinks 6 Iranian Ships, Tehran Strikes back after Oil Rig Shellings
- Obama: Lifting of sanctions will increase Iran's ability to finance terrorists
- ‘Look ... It’s My Name on This’: Obama Defends the Iran Nuclear Deal